ACUS11 KWNS 032207

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 032207 

SDZ000-NEZ000-040000-



Mesoscale Discussion 0971

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0507 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026



Areas affected...North-central Nebraska



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 032207Z - 040000Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may increase in coverage through the evening

hours. However, weaker deep-layer shear with southward extent casts

uncertainty on storm longevity and whether additional watch issuance

will be needed.



DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, deepening cumulus and initial

stages of sustained thunderstorm development have become apparent

along a surface trough and along/north of a northward propagating

outflow boundary across north-central NE. This activity is maturing

within the regional buoyancy maximum where lifted indices are on the

order of -6 to -8 C and SBCAPE is estimated upwards of 3000 J/kg.

Consequently, the intensity and coverage of convection should

increase over the next couple of hours to the south of WW 271.

However, based on latest forecast soundings and RAP mesoanalysis,

weaker mid/upper-level flow with southward extent is contributing to

effective bulk shear values on the order of 25 knots. While

supportive of marginal supercells, given the tight clustering of

developing convection evident in GOES imagery, loosely organized

multicells should be the most probable storm mode with an attendant

threat for isolated large hail and severe gusts. 



Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along the

southward advancing cold front later this evening, but focused

frontal forcing should promote more linear modes and a predominant

wind threat. Regardless, the marginal shear environment coupled with

the relatively confined spatial corridor between WW 271 and a cold

pool across south-central NE casts uncertainty on how long-lived

and/or widespread the severe threat will be.



..Moore/Guyer.. 06/03/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...



LAT...LON   41430022 41500061 41690110 42000142 42350162 42660166

            42880154 43010126 42969983 43019874 43079811 43069779

            42929756 42679749 42339762 42139778 41859811 41679848

            41529894 41429933 41419977 41430022 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN