ACUS11 KWNS 032150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032150 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-032345- Mesoscale Discussion 0970 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado into adjacent portions of western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032150Z - 032345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the Colorado Front Range will pose a threat for isolated severe wind gusts, and perhaps sporadic large hail, through the evening hours. This threat should remain sufficiently localized and transient to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Convection has erupted along the CO Front Range near and north of the Denver area over the past hour. Based on recent MRMS vertically integrated ice trends, a few of the deeper cores appear sufficiently robust to support large hail. However, individual convective cores have exhibited short life spans thus far (on the order of 20-40 minutes), likely owing to the weak upslope flow regime and meager deep-layer wind speeds. Consequently, it appears likely that this activity will quickly become outflow-dominant as it gradually spreads northeast into northeastern CO along an SBCAPE axis through the evening hours. Despite the poor kinematic environment, low-level lapse rates were recently analyzed to be around 9 C/km, which appears reasonable based on downstream dewpoint depressions of of 30-40 F within the effective warm sector. As such, strong to severe downburst winds will be possible, especially if a more consolidated, forward-propagating cold pool can become established from the emerging convection. Recent surface observations and radar reflectivity imagery also depict several subtle boundaries across the High Plains, hinting that ambient (though weak) low-level vorticity is in place across the region. While unlikely, a landspout could occur if a sufficiently strong updraft can develop atop one of these boundaries. However, given the propensity for outflow-dominant storms and meager wind shear, the overall threat is expected to remain sufficiently localized and transient to preclude watch issuance. ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39270453 39310480 39530496 40290504 40910487 41580348 41620292 41400259 41060232 40780212 40330211 39970215 39640227 39430267 39270453 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN