ACUS11 KWNS 032050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032050 TXZ000-NMZ000-032315- Mesoscale Discussion 0969 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026 Areas affected...portions of southern New Mexico into West Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032050Z - 032315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will bring a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps an instance or two of large hail this evening into the early overnight hours. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery and lightning data depict continued thunderstorm development across high terrain areas and along cold pool boundaries across portions of western New Mexico, southeastern Arizona, and northern Mexico. Expectation is for this activity to gradually evolve into southern New Mexico and West Texas through this evening/afternoon as remaining inhibition (evident in latest objective analysis and the 18z EPZ observed sounding) erodes. The greatest potential for isolated severe through early this evening appears to exist across southern New Mexico and the Big Bend region of Texas where objective analysis and visible satellite suggest remaining inhibition is weaker. This potential should then gradually spread into the remainder of the discussion area (across West Texas) later in the evening as the stronger inhibition lingering across this area erodes and low-level lapse rates steepen. Latest guidance and RAP forecast soundings depict deepening boundary layer mixing through the evening amid continued insolation. This should yield modestly deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles by this evening with steep low-level lapse rates and LCLs of around 2500-3000 m promoting the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts. Weak effective shear (generally around 20 kts or less) will largely preclude updraft organization, but some clustering/upscale growth is possible with any coalescing cold pools. Isolated large hail also cannot be ruled out with the most robust cores given steep mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8+ C/km sampled by the 18z EPZ sounding). Watch issuance is not expected at this time owing to the limited magnitude/coverage of the severe threat. ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 29140282 30500349 31550416 32320471 32730504 33030530 33180546 33240567 33300606 33330674 33290734 33220788 33090844 32950879 32720900 32490899 32150901 31830892 31500879 31280864 31210839 31220817 31410803 31600793 31600660 31180608 30680540 30270490 29910482 29550466 29230423 28980367 28800321 28820301 29140282 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN