ACUS11 KWNS 030157

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 030156 

NEZ000-SDZ000-030400-



Mesoscale Discussion 0966

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0856 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026



Areas affected...Southwest South Dakota into northwest Nebraska



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269...



Valid 030156Z - 030400Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269

continues.



SUMMARY...A threat for severe hail and wind will likely persist for

the next hour or two, but a gradual weakening trend is anticipated

beyond 04 UTC.



DISCUSSION...A robust convective band has been slowly moving

eastward across southwest SD with several intense updraft pulses

embedded within the line per recent MRMS VIL and GOES IR imagery.

Given residual buoyancy analyzed immediately downstream of this band

in latest mesoanalysis estimates, some severe hail/wind threat may

linger for the next hour or so - especially on the southern flank of

the line where low-level convergence should increase in response to

a strengthening nocturnal jet. 



However, this band will continue to push into the cold pool of a

preceding MCV/squall line (currently over central SD) where

temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s. The coming onset of

nocturnal cooling should reduce near-surface temperatures further

and increase inhibition. Diminishing deep-layer shear with eastward

extent will also promote a higher chance for outflow-dominant

convection and a gradual weakening trend. Based on latest forecast

guidance, the severe threat should substantially diminish after

approximately 04 UTC.



..Moore.. 06/03/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...



LAT...LON   42840350 43670254 43800238 43910205 44050098 43780069

            43470069 43170076 42910096 42760123 42520185 42460230

            42390277 42410313 42470341 42640352 42840350 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN