ACUS03 KWNS 191937

SWODY3

SPC AC 191936



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0236 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026



Valid 211200Z - 221200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the

south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday.

Potential for severe weather appears low.



...Synopsis...

Upper ridging will be the primary feature across much of the CONUS

from the eastern Great Basin into Plains on Tuesday. Moderate

northwesterly flow aloft will remain across the Upper Midwest and

portions of the Ohio Valley in the wake of a stronger upper trough.

Along the West Coast, an upper trough is expected to slowly move

ashore in central California into the western Great Basin. At the

surface, continued presence of high pressure in the Southeast and

off the Atlantic coast will drive moisture return into a

stalled/remnant cold front in central Plains and Lower Great Lakes

vicinity.



...Lower Great Lakes...

Modest moisture return ahead of the boundary is expected to promote

isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. This may not occur until

early/mid evening, however. Temperatures will be quite cold aloft

(perhaps near -20 C at 500 mb), but moisture could be quite limited

(potentially in the 40s F). The NAM is again the most aggressive

with moisture return as compared to other guidance. Should

sufficient moisture return occur, shear will be sufficient for

marginally organized convection capable of strong gusts and hail.

Uncertainty is high given how dry the airmass is preceding this

moisture return and convection near the Gulf Coast on preceding days

will potentially slow northward progress.



...Central Valley California...

Ahead of the upper low, southeasterly winds may develop within the

Valley. While destabilization will not be overly strong, pockets of

heating could lead to modest MLCAPE values by the afternoon. Shear

will be a limiting factor for overall severe potential, but a

stronger storm or two is possible.



...Central Texas...

Convection will be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Modest deep-layer

shear and elevated buoyancy could promote a couple stronger storms

capable of small hail. However, storms should generally become less

organized with time as upper-level ridging builds in through the

day.



..Wendt.. 04/19/2026



$$