ACUS03 KWNS 161932

SWODY3

SPC AC 161931



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0231 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026



Valid 181200Z - 191200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN

OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...PARTS OF

IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...



...SUMMARY...

Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a

cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the

central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards

(including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be

possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.



...Synopsis...



An upper trough is forecast to extend from MT to the Four Corners

Monday morning. An upper shortwave trough emanating from the base of

the larger-scale western U.S. trough is forecast to lift northeast

across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest through the period.

As this occurs, a belt of strong southwesterly midlevel flow will

overspread OK/KS into IA and the Great Lakes vicinity. Beneath

enhanced southwesterly deep layer flow, rich Gulf moisture will

spread north/northeast from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS

Valley and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front will reside from the

Upper MS Valley to a surface low over central KS during the

afternoon. A dryline will extend southward from the KS surface low

into western OK/west-central TX. A volatile environment is expected

across parts of the warm sector, particularly across KS into IA,

where significant all-hazards severe storms are expected.



...Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO...



Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints are forecast ahead of the dryline

and cold front. This area should remain mostly free from convective

contamination from any continuing convection from late in the Day

2/Sunday period. Strong heating and very steep midlevel lapse rates

will contribute to strong destabilization. Supercell wind profiles

are expected, with backed low-level winds veering with height, while

also increasing in speed. Southerly 850-700 mb flow is forecast to

strengthen in the 21-00z time frame as large-scale ascent also

increases. This will allow for enlarged low-level hodograph

curvature and increasing 0-1 km SRH. Robust convection will develop

within the warm sector and supercell capable of very large hail (2-4

inch diameter), strong to intense tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts

will be possible. 



With time, convection will likely grow upscale as the surface cold

front begins to develop southeast through the evening/nighttime

hours. 



...Central IA into portions of IL/WI/IN/Lower MI...



Uncertainty is greater with northeast extent on Monday. Ongoing

convection and cloud cover is possible across parts of IA into WI

Monday morning. Regardless, a moist airmass will be in place.

Depending on location and extent of morning convection, airmass

recovery is possible. Furthermore, downstream destabilization into

parts of northern IL/IN and Lower MI seems more likely. This could

result in re-intensification of any morning convection as it spreads

east. While convective evolution remains uncertain, a damaging wind

and hail risk appears possible. 



...OK/TX...



A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX.

Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong

instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer

flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still

sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large

to very large hail will exist.



..Leitman.. 05/16/2026



$$