ACUS03 KWNS 160737

SWODY3

SPC AC 160736



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0236 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026



Valid 181200Z - 191200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE

SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...



...SUMMARY...

Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a

cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the

central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards

(including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be

possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.



...Synopsis...

On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before

ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow

aloft overspreading the region. As a result, a strong surface low

will development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will

extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper

Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western

Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to

develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along

the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central

Kansas. 



...Central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska...

A volatile environment is expected to be in place ahead of the

dryline across central Kansas Monday afternoon, with moderate to

strong instability, strong deep layer shear, and steep low to

mid-level lapse rates. This will favor supercells as the primary

mode with developing thunderstorms along the dryline in the

afternoon, with potential for large to very large hail (some 2-4

inch). Through the afternoon and evening, a 40-50 kt southerly low

level jet will shift into central Kansas with large clockwise

enhancement of low-level hodographs. Should the mode be able to

remain discrete supercells, strong to intense tornadoes will be

possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. This in

combination with potential for very large hail may warrant higher

probabilities as mesoscale details become clearer. 



As the front shifts southward through time, upscale growth will be

favored with increasing probabilities for damaging winds.



...Iowa into Wisconsin and the Great Lakes Region...

Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected further north

along the front into Iowa/Wisconsin and north into the Great Lakes

Region. Early day convection may be ongoing at the start of the

period within these regions, which may limit how much

destabilization can occur before the afternoon. Nonetheless,

guidance suggests potential for damaging wind and perhaps a few

instances of severe hail with storms along the front Monday

afternoon and evening.



...Western Oklahoma into northern Texas...

Forcing for ascent will be weaker across the dryline into western

Oklahoma and northern Texas. Guidance does suggest that a few

isolated supercells could develop near the dryline, with potential

for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.

Given the strong flow aloft and better large scale ascent will

reside further north in Kansas, mode may quickly become messy with

uncertainty in overall coverage at this time.



..Thornton.. 05/16/2026



$$