ACUS03 KWNS 060728

SWODY3

SPC AC 060727



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0227 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026



Valid 081200Z - 091200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE

CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts

appear possible across the central High Plains Monday afternoon and

evening.



...Synopsis...



Mid-level heights are forecast to rise over the northern and central

High Plains Monday in the wake of a short-wave trough lifting into

central Canada, and ahead of an amplifying, upstream system tracking

from the northern Great Basin into northern Rockies. At the surface,

a frontal system extending from the eastern Dakotas to low pressure

over western KS Monday morning is forecast to weaken through the day

in response to falling pressures across the northern Rockies.





...Central High Plains...



Deepening low pressure over MT and WY in conjunction with a residual

surface low over southwest KS or northwest OK will promote the

westward advection of an increasingly moist air mass into the higher

terrain of eastern CO and southeast WY. That process will occur

beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates with a moderately

unstable environment developing by afternoon. In the absence of

appreciable forcing for ascent, daytime heating and lift along

favored terrain may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm

development by mid to late afternoon. Southwesterly mid-level winds

are forecast to strengthen through the day, yielding sufficient

vertical shear for supercells capable of large hail. There is some

model signal that an isolated hail and wind threat may spread into

western parts of NE and KS Monday evening.





...Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South...



A number of models suggest that thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday

morning across Ozarks or Ozark Plateau region within a zone of warm

advection occurring with the terminus of a nocturnal low-level jet

(LLJ). The LLJ is forecast to weaken through the morning, with

forcing for ascent becoming much more nebulous into afternoon. The

air mass along and south of an expected outflow boundary is forecast

to be quite moist and moderate to strongly unstable, and a few

severe storms appear possible during the afternoon. Vertical shear

will remain weak, which will limit the magnitude of any severe

weather threat. The primary uncertainty is exactly where the outflow

boundary will reside given considerable model variability in

precipitation distribution throughout the day. As such, no

severe-weather probabilities will be included in this forecast.



..Mead.. 06/06/2026



$$