ACUS02 KWNS 160602

SWODY2

SPC AC 160601



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0101 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026



Valid 171200Z - 181200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL

NEBRASKA TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...



...SUMMARY...

Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from

portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells

with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale

storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat.



...Synopsis...

A mid-level trough currently across the Pacific Northwest will

deepen D2/Sunday, moving across Great Basin into the Four Corners

into early D3/Monday. Elevated convection will likely be ongoing at

the start of the period across portions of northern Nebraska into

Iowa. Westerly flow will overspread the central/northern Plains as a

lead shortwave moves across western Kansas into Nebraska through the

day before shifting into the Upper Midwest. A surface cyclone will

deepen across eastern Colorado/western Kansas with strong moist

southerly flow and mid 60s dew points extending across much of the

central and southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected by

the afternoon from a stationary boundary/warm front across central

Nebraska southward to the dryline across central Kansas and perhaps

as far south as the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.



...NE to MN...

Strong daytime heating and destabilization should occur behind

morning convection across Nebraska into Iowa through broken cloud

cover. Better clearing will be possible across

southeastern/south-central Nebraska where fewer clouds will be

present. Overall, a broad corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg

and strong deep layer shear should extend across southern Nebraska

into western Iowa just south of the warm front. Strengthening

southerly 700-850 mb flow is expected through the afternoon, with a

low-level jet around 40-50 kts across central Kansas into eastern

Nebraska. By the afternoon, guidance suggests that supercells may

develop near the stationary front/warm front in eastern Nebraska.

Given the environment, these will be capable of large to very large

hail (some 2-3 inches), damaging wind, and a few tornadoes (some

strong). Through time, convection will likely cluster and grow

upscale with a damaging wind threat continuing downstream into

southeast SD, northwest IA and southwest MN through Sunday night.



...Western KS to TX Panhandles...

Forcing for ascent will be weaker with southern extent into western

Kansas/western Oklahoma near the dryline. Soundings across these

regions also indicate capping at the base of the EML, which may be

difficult to overcome. Nonetheless, a few isolated supercells may

develop along the dryline as the low-level jet increases through the

evening. These will pose a risk for large to very large hail and

damaging winds.



..Thornton.. 05/16/2026



$$