ACUS01 KWNS 030557

SWODY1

SPC AC 030556



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1256 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026



Valid 031200Z - 041200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF

THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts

will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the

northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic

occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible

across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into

southeast New Mexico.



...Synopsis...

The upper low will move into the Canadian Prairie today. A modest

mid-level jet will overspread North Dakota into northern South

Dakota. A cold front will move south and east through the Dakotas. A

surface high in the Great Lakes region will promote moisture

advection into the High Plains.



...Northern Plains...

A modest low-level jet (45 kt at KLNX) is promoting a small cluster

of convection along the Nebraska/South Dakota border early this

morning. The duration of this activity is not certain, but it is

possible that it could last until daybreak when the low-level jet is

forecast to weaken. At a minimum, cloud cover from this activity may

delay heating in some areas. Models still bring low 60s F dewpoints

into South Dakota by the afternoon. Forcing for ascent will be

strongest in North Dakota where the upper low will be. Modest ascent

will still occur into South Dakota along the surface trough/front.

40-50 kt of shear will promote organized supercells, at least

initially. There does appear to be a small corridor where a discrete

mode could be maintained longer where the shear vectors will be more

orthogonal the surface trough. There, very-large hail would be more

probable. Overall, a transition to a linear mode is expected to

occur within a couple of hours of initiation as the front moves

southeast. Severe winds would become more likely as this occurs. The

tornado threat will be greatest with the initial discrete storms.

The low-level jet does modestly increase during the evening when a

linear mode should dominate. A QLCS circulation or two is possible,

but the wind threat should be the main concern.



...Central into southern Plains...

Weak convectively generated MCVs are apparent in water vapor imagery

in the Southwest. As these move slowly eastward  into this

afternoon, perhaps congealing, they will interact with a surface

trough/stalled boundary in the High Plains. Deep-layer winds will

otherwise be weak, but the MCV may locally enhance shear. Low to mid

60s F dewpoints will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg despite fairly

modest mid-level lapse rates. The strongest storms will be capable

of isolated large hail and severe gusts. Some clustering may occur

which would locally increase the threat for strong/severe winds.



...Southwest Texas...

Early morning convection appears possible within the region. The

spatial extent/intensity of this activity will play a large role in

whether stronger convection can develop later in the afternoon/early

evening. Should cloud cover/outflow influence be minimal, strong

heating southwest of the region along with moist influx from the

southeast will promote thunderstorms within the Davis Mountains/Big

Bend. Deep-layer flow will only be modest, but isolated large hail

and severe gusts would be possible.



..Wendt/Moore.. 06/03/2026



$$